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Prediction for CME (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-21T16:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32090/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-24T20:42Z (-7.59h, +6.87h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/07/21 16:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 01:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 04:10Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 2:50
POS Midpoint: 02:45Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.54
Travel Time: ~7.54 * 10:05 = 76:02

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-07-24T20:42Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/07/22 01:39Z

Lead Time: 42.08 hour(s)
Difference: -24.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-07-22T01:43Z

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